Articles Development and validation of the ISARIC 4C Deterioration model for adults hospitalised with COVID-19 : a prospective cohort study

Authors:

Gupta, Rishi K Harrison, Ewen M Ho, Antonia Docherty, Annemarie B Knight, Stephen R Smeden, Maarten Van Abubakar, Ibrahim Lipman, Marc Quartagno, Matteo Pius, Riinu Buchan, Iain Carson, Gail Drake, Thomas M Dunning, Jake Fairfield, Cameron J Gamble, Carrol Green, Christopher A Halpin, Sophie Hardwick, Hayley E Holden, Karl A Horby, Peter W Jackson, Clare Mclean, Kenneth A Merson, Laura Nguyen-van-tam, Jonathan S Norman, Lisa Olliaro, Piero L Pritchard, Mark G Russell, Clark D Scott-brown, James Shaw, Catherine A Sheikh, Aziz Solomon, Tom Sudlow, Cathie

Abstract:

Prognostic models to predict the risk of clinical deterioration in acute COVID-19 cases are urgently required to inform clinical management decisions. We developed and validated a multivariable logistic regression model for in-hospital clinical deterioration(defined as any requirement of ventilatory support or critical care, or death) among consecutively hospitalised adults with highly suspected or confirmed COVID-19 who were prospectively recruited to the International Severe Acute Respiratory and Emerging Infections Consortium Coronavirus Clinical Characterisation Consortium (ISARIC4C) study across 260 hospitals in England, Scotland and Wales.    

Journal:

The Lancet Respiratory Medicine

Research Themes:

1. Patient Research for Public Health