Articles Development and validation of the ISARIC 4C Deterioration model for adults hospitalised with COVID-19 : a prospective cohort study


Gupta, Rishi K Harrison, Ewen M Ho, Antonia Docherty, Annemarie B Knight, Stephen R Smeden, Maarten Van Abubakar, Ibrahim Lipman, Marc Quartagno, Matteo Pius, Riinu Buchan, Iain Carson, Gail Drake, Thomas M Dunning, Jake Fairfield, Cameron J Gamble, Carrol Green, Christopher A Halpin, Sophie Hardwick, Hayley E Holden, Karl A Horby, Peter W Jackson, Clare Mclean, Kenneth A Merson, Laura Nguyen-van-tam, Jonathan S Norman, Lisa Olliaro, Piero L Pritchard, Mark G Russell, Clark D Scott-brown, James Shaw, Catherine A Sheikh, Aziz Solomon, Tom Sudlow, Cathie


Prognostic models to predict the risk of clinical deterioration in acute COVID-19 cases are urgently required to inform clinical management decisions. We developed and validated a multivariable logistic regression model for in-hospital clinical deterioration(defined as any requirement of ventilatory support or critical care, or death) among consecutively hospitalised adults with highly suspected or confirmed COVID-19 who were prospectively recruited to the International Severe Acute Respiratory and Emerging Infections Consortium Coronavirus Clinical Characterisation Consortium (ISARIC4C) study across 260 hospitals in England, Scotland and Wales.    


The Lancet Respiratory Medicine

Research Themes:

1. Patient Research for Public Health