Mosquito-borne diseases: Advances in modelling climate-change impacts
Tjaden N, Caminade C, Beierkuhnlein C, Thomas S
The use of ensembles of different climate models for future projections, as well as multiple different mechanistic or correlative disease models per study, is increasing.
Communicating uncertainties related to disease models, different climate models, and emission and population pathways to end users is becoming a common thing to do.
Most models tend to project an increased risk for vector-borne disease (VBD) transmission at high latitudes and elevations during the upcoming century.
While mechanistic models typically cover the whole chain of infection by default, most environmental niche models (ENMs) still focus on vector distributions alone; they are increasingly applied to whole disease systems as well.
Trends in Parasitology
Vector Biology & Climate Modelling